Sunday, 11 March 2018

Relevance of Banks in the mid-to-late 21st Century – Part-I


Headlines today!



What are some of things that Bank’s do now?
   Accept Deposits (and facilitating withdrawal of these deposits)
   Issuing Loans (and ensuring that the loans are collected with interest)
   Issuing and clearing Checks, Demand Drafts
   Facilitating Direct Debit/ ECS
   Issuing/ Discounting of Overdraft, Bill of Exchange, Letter of Credit
   Invest in Bonds, Securities, etcetera
   Safe deposit lockers/ safe custody
   Merchant Banking and Underwriting
   Bancassurance
   Cards - Debit, Credit, FX, Gift, Special Purpose

Things: They are a changing…
   The way people bank is changing
   Retail sector has adopted digital channels at the bleeding edge of technology
   Corporate sector has traditionally been a laggard in adoption
   Legislation and rising costs of traditional banking are forcing a rethink
   Very few banks have identified how to use the huge data they are sitting on and how to leverage more

What/ who is changing the status quo?
   Fintech startups
   Legislative push towards digital channels
   AI – Machine Learning, Expert Systems, Natural Language Processing
   Mobile devices, Internet-of-Things

So what is changing?

   Banking from/ to anywhere, anytime, anyhow
   Bank will increasingly move from stores-of-money to stores-of-data
   Money is increasingly an digital/ virtual
   Countries (and surprise-surprise even Banks) do not want to be handling paper or paper currencies due to the increased risk and costs involved
   Decentralized data stores of digital accounts controlled by a statutory authority will kick-in sooner than later with transactions happening point-to-point eliminating middlemen

Many banks are spending a lot of thought and implementing common platform for all their offerings. They are embracing innovative digital channels. However, with extremely quick innovation (read disruption) cycles will they be able to keep pace, be nimble?

In 2017, we saw many countries and central banks mark crypto currencies as non-legal tender. It is important to note that hardly anybody has marked it as an illegal tender. The BIS and central banks worldwide are working round-the-clock to identify how to get a proper framework to control crypto currencies. Into the future, something like an XDR (Special Drawing Rights) currency, will not be linked to a currency basket as, is being done today but to a common world currency. The “problem” with this is will remove a lot of complexity in the world market. Many intermediaries, many brokers, too many high-paying jobs are at stake. Officially, it will not be easy to push this out through the World Bank in turn through all then countries. However, with a parallel economy cropping up and growing, by the 2040s’ at the latest, this is bound to come into fruition.
  • How will banks cope?
  • Will banks be relevant and how?
  • Will the behemoths of today remain?

Do wait for the next part in a couple of weeks.

Please leave your comments and let me know your thoughts.